By Anuoluwapo Adefiwitan
Erik Peterson, managing director of Kearney’s Global Business Policy Council, spoke on Tuesday, Feb. 15 about the five trends that are predicted to impact the global sphere from 2021 through 2026.
Peterson, along with the Center for Global Business’ Academic Director Kislaya Prasad, presented Kearney’s report, “Promise and Peril: Global Trends 2021-2026 executive summary.” The discussion was part of the Robert H. Smith School of Business’ Distinguished Speakers in International Business Series.
Kearney, a global consulting firm, releases its trend report annually with new or overlapping trends that fit within a five-year category. It serves to give insight into the existing trends that have not yet distracted global values but are set to become significant forces of the future.
“We need to be thinking in terms of strategic foresight these days as never before,” Peterson said.
Kearney’s latest report identifies the global race for quantum primacy, a rise in water dislocation, ungovernability, mainstream central bank digital currencies and the emerging era of genetic manipulation as the five trends.
Peterson explained quantum as a technology that “uses a dimensional computation that allows you to have exponential increases with respect to computational capabilities.”
According to Peterson, quantum computing can solve in minutes what a conventional super computer would take years to solve. Prasad said the technology has the power to build unhackable systems while possessing ultimate hacking power.
Prasad said that quantum is telling as a trend. He stated that it has become something “close to the university.” Prasad noted the College Park based company IonQ, which specializes in quantum software and hardware computing.
The next trend in Kearney’s report, water dislocation, refers to water scarcity and its impediment on leading economies. The global disputes over water rights and the decreasing price point of water is now shifting the focus of firms to “reducing their global water footprint,” according to Kearney’s report.
“Water has been a problem for humanity for a long time,” Peterson said. “Things have been exacerbated by climate change.”
Despite this, Peterson said the exciting part of this trend is the high-technology innovations that are advancing water preservation and creating new forms of agriculture, such as satellite-guided irrigation technologies.
Caitlin Hickey, a senior business management and finance major, attended the discussion. She said the water dislocation trend intrigued her.
“When discussing the price complexities of water, you think about the supply and demand aspect, but also the human rights aspect,” Hickey said. “It is interesting though that technology and science will be used to solve this problem.”
The next trend, ungovernability, refers to the distrust citizens have in their governments. Peterson said that distrust increased because of the pandemic. He said that social media is central to the disinformation that drove up this distrust during the pandemic. He expects that governments will create more policies to regulate the possibility of disinformation.
“There are costs to be paid for dysfunctionality,” Peterson said.
Peterson believes that people are gradually looking to companies as leaders for their stance on social issues, which firms should consider as they approach macro-leadership roles.
The next trend, mainstream central bank digital currencies, refers to the “integrated web network that could create higher levels of efficiency as a result of the integration of digital currency,” according to Peterson.
The idea of electronic transfers and banking innovation is being pursued across the world. Peterson said the idea “supplies efficiencies and higher levels of stability.”
Peterson said the major global risk of central bank digital currencies is that bigger countries with access to high technology may have significant advantages over smaller countries.
The last trend, genetic editing, is the product of advancing measures in synthetic biology, CRISPR and mRNA vaccines. These measures work to use DNA’s memory capability to advance technological developments. The target areas of genetic editing are human health, food and agriculture, energy and environment, and high technology.
Peterson said that all of the trends have an aspect of promise and peril to them. Each trend participates in the global movement to the future, but also bears unique economic, social or environmental implications.
Prasad said that he and the Center for Global Business were fortunate to have Peterson.
“I like the fact that this report is forward looking and also it is strategic. All students have to be thinking about the future in a strategic way.”
Featured image: Erik Peterson and Kislaya Prasad presented Kearney’s report, “Promise and Peril: Global Trends 2021-2026 executive summary” on Tuesday, Feb. 15. Photo by Anuoluwapo Adefiwitan.